US March CPI Hits 3.3% as April Rate Cut Odds Stay Near Zero

Key Point

The BLS reported that March CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year, slightly below analyst expectations. The BLS said the energy index rose nearly 11%, with gasoline up 21.2%, as energy prices from the Iran war pushed inflation higher. CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 0% chance of an April rate cut and 98.4% odds that the FOMC will keep rates on hold. Bitcoin rose more than 1.5% on Friday and briefly reached $73,000 after the CPI release. Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the $73,000–$75,000 zone is the next major target for Bitcoin.

Why it matters: Softer inflation data may support risk assets, but elevated price pressures could keep policy rates higher for longer and slow any broader crypto rally.

Market Sentiment

Cautiously Bullish, Macro-driven, Volatile.

Reason: March CPI came in slightly below expectations, which may support an initial positive read for Bitcoin even if rate relief still looks delayed.

Similar Past Cases

A similar setup appeared after the March 2025 U.S. CPI report. CoinDesk reported that bitcoin rose above $82,000 after softer inflation data, but traders still expected the Fed to stay on hold at the next meeting. (CoinDesk) This case showed that a cooler print can lift crypto quickly without guaranteeing an immediate policy shift. The current report carries stronger energy pressure, which could keep the policy signal more constrained.

Ripple Effect

A softer CPI print may improve liquidity expectations, which can support Bitcoin and other risk assets. Persistent energy-led inflation may blunt that support if traders keep pushing expected cuts further out. If rate-cut odds remain pinned near zero after the next set of policy signals, then the spillover may stay limited to a short relief move instead of a broader trend.

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities: If FOMC rate-cut odds start to rise after this CPI print, then that is a stronger signal to add risk after confirmation because liquidity expectations would be improving.

Risks: If energy-driven inflation stays firm and hold expectations remain near certainty, then reducing short-term exposure after sharp rallies can limit reversal risk because higher-for-longer rates can cap follow-through.