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U.S. March CPI rose 0.9% month over month and 3.3% year over year in March. Gasoline prices drove nearly three-quarters of the monthly increase. Bitcoin briefly rose above $73,000 after the release. CME FedWatch still showed a 0% chance of an April rate cut and 98.4% odds that the FOMC will keep rates on hold (reported 16 hours ago).

Bitcoin traded above $73,000 after March CPI data and a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire lifted risk appetite. Bitcoin rose more than 3% in 24 hours in one report. Ethereum also moved higher after the data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $343 million in net inflows on April 9, and perpetual futures funding rates moved back toward negative territory even as spot prices rose. Friday's peace talks were presented as the next test for whether the relief rally extends or reverses (reported 12 hours ago).

Hong Kong granted its first stablecoin issuer licenses to HSBC and Anchorpoint Financial, a joint venture led by Standard Chartered that includes Animoca Brands and Hong Kong Telecommunications. The HKMA selected the two winners from 36 applicants and authorized both to issue Hong Kong dollar-pegged stablecoins. The framework requires full backing with high-quality liquid assets and one-business-day par redemption, and it bars interest-bearing and algorithmic stablecoins. HKMA officials said the licensees are expected to commence operations within the coming months. HSBC said its HKD stablecoin will be available in PayMe and HSBC HK Mobile Banking in the second half of 2026 (reported 15 hours ago).

Market Trends

U.S. officials said Iran cannot account for all the mines it scattered in the Strait of Hormuz, and the problem is limiting Tehran's ability to reopen the waterway. Senior delegations are meeting in Islamabad before the ceasefire's April 22 expiration, and neither Iran nor the U.S. can quickly remove the mines (reported 2 hours ago).

U.S. March CPI came in at 3.3% year on year and 0.9% month on month, and spot gold rose more than $10 in the short term to $4,775 per ounce. The year-on-year rate was the highest since May 2024, and the month-on-month rate was the highest since June 2022 (reported 20 hours ago).

Lookonchain said Circle minted another 250 million USDC on Solana, bringing tracked issuance on the chain to 105 billion USDC over the past month. The tracked issuance was specific to the Solana chain (reported 16 hours ago).

Regulation & Policy

A federal court temporarily blocked Arizona officials from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi's event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges until April 24. The court said the CFTC is likely to succeed in arguing that the contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Japan amended the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act and formally reclassified crypto assets as financial instruments, moving crypto out of the Payment and Settlement Act. The amendment also bans insider trading.

Kraken became the first crypto company to receive a Federal Reserve master account through its Wyoming banking arm, with access to Fedwire and limited overnight balances for one year initially. The account does not include interest on reserve balances, emergency Fed lending, FedNow, or ACH.

Institutional Updates

Morgan Stanley's new Bitcoin Trust brought in $14.9 million on its second trading day after about $30.6 million in first-day net inflows. Ric Edelman said the ETF is on pace to pull in $7 billion in its first year.

OwlTing integrated Visa Direct into OwlPay, which lets eligible U.S. debit cardholders fund USDC transactions without a standalone exchange account. The feature is live in OwlPay Harbor and OwlPay Wallet Pro.

Whop launched its Treasury yield product on March 25 after Tether invested $200 million in the company in February at a $1.6 billion valuation. The product routes user funds through a Veda vault on the Plasma network into Aave's lending markets.

What to Watch

If Friday’s peace talks keep the ceasefire in place and oil breaks below $84, that is a potential re-entry signal for risk assets. Adding exposure only after both signals appear can reduce the chance of chasing a headline-only rally.

If FOMC rate-cut odds start to rise after this CPI print, that is a stronger signal that liquidity expectations are improving. Adding risk after that confirmation can better fit a broader rebound in macro-sensitive assets.